Paper develops volatility forecasting model of RUR/USD exchange rate. To forecast volatility we decompose it to components, characterizing fractal structure of financial time series. Using regression analysis we confirm quasi-cyclical time structure for one of the fractal parameter. We then discuss capacity of the method to predict volatility, including forecasting market transition to unsteady state.
Class description: introductory course on developing trading algorithms and algotrading industry as a whole. Class is held in financial lab with 9 Bloomberg terminals; students are learning to fast-prototype algorithms using R language and real data from markets. Focus is on practice, but good understanding of underlying theory is a must. Knowledge of Bloomberg platform and R language is an advantage.
Prerequisites: basics of financial markets, technical and fundamental analysis, financial mathematics, modern portfolio theory, statistics and probability theory.